A súbita impossibilidade da Geringonça

A Russian tank T-72B3 fires as troops take part in drills at the Kadamovskiy firing range
in the Rostov region in southern Russia, on Jan. 12, 2022. (AP Photo)

Uma nova guerra mundial na Europa?

O que é que Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Kamala Harris, Alexandria Octavio-Cortez, Olaf Scholz, Annalena Baerbock, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann e Justin Trudeau têm em comum? A resposta é simples: são todos democratas, verdes e liberais progressistas. Por outro lado, estão todos dispostos a antecipar uma guerra contra a Rússia, por causa da Ucrânia ou doutro motivo qualquer,  mas também contra a China, ou seja, a defenderem a predominância do imperialismo atlântico e europeu sobre o despotismo russo e chinês antes que seja tarde! Se não é isto, assim parece.

Este realinhamento de forças e de retórica progressista envolve também os dirigentes conservador inglês Boris Johson e liberal de centro-direita Scott Morrison. Ou seja, uma coligação de ideias e de forças onde não cabe, de jeito nenhum, a geringonça engendrada pelos senhores Jerónimo de Sousa, António Costa e Francisco Louçã. Estes últimos pintaram o demónio Trump de todas as cores, mas afinal quem os lixou mesmo foram os belicistas do Partido Democrático dos Estados Unidos, os social-democratas, os verdes e os liberais alemães, e ainda os conservadores ingleses e o partido de centro-direita australiano.

Se as causas internas da implosão da Geringonça (sobre-endividamento, emigração em massa, descapitalização do estado e das empresas, alienação das empresas estratégicas, nomeadamente nos setores da energia, banca, portos e aeroportos, águas e saneamento, corrupção, e ainda o esgotamento das máfias partidáris que controlam o país há quarenta anos) são já de si suficientes para assustar quem quer que pretenda herdar tamanha falência desordenada, a rápida deterioração da globalização e da diplomacia mundial, na sequência da crise provocada, primeiro, pelo furacão Trump, e logo depois, pela pandemia, e que levou a uma recomposição de velhas alianças históricas, impõe claramente uma mudança de regime no nosso país. Quer dizer, o fim de uma esquerda toda poderosa mas incapaz, perdida no tempo e na taxonomia, em suma, que nunca percebeu a importância crucial da geografia e da história na condução da Política.

António Costa bem gostaria de fazer a pedratura do círculo, mas tal geometria é, por definição, impossível. Poderá, no entanto, como um qualquer náufrago agarrar-se à primeira tábua de salvação que encontre. Se perder as eleições do dia 30 terá a mesma saída de muitos outros políticos da nossa praça: a de comentador de televisão, provavelmente mal pago. Se ganhar as eleições, mas sem maioria, Rui Rio e a IL serão as suas únicas possíveis bóias para conseguir manter o PS no governo. Uma nova geringonça de esquerda, isto é, frente populista, está fora do horizonte e sobretudo das margens de tolerância de Joe Biden, de Olaf Scholz e da NATO. Capiche? 

Xiiiiiiiiii....!

China suspendou a importação dos SUV da Mercedes fabricados nos EUA

Os três erros fatais de Xi

1—Não existe tal coisa a que os mentores de Xi chamam “Chinese exceptionalism”;

2—A América, mesmo ferida, é um gigante cultural, tecnológico, energético e militar;

3—A China tem o mesmo problema genético da Alemanha: não dispõe de autonomia energética, mineral e alimentar. E tem um grande problema histórico, que se agravou: uma população envelhecida que é mais do que quatro vezes a população dos Estados Unidos da América;

Recomendação aos meus queridos conterrâneos: preparem-se para reforçar as alianças com ingleses e americanos, sem deixar cair as boas relações com a China e Bruxelas, claro.

Mas a prioridade das prioridades portuguesas tem um nome: África!

Handling of U.S. trade dispute causes rift in Chinese leadership: sourcesBen Blanchard, Kevin Yao
Reuters, August 9, 2018 / 8:52 am 

“Many economists and intellectuals are upset about China’s trade war policies,” an academic at a Chinese policy think tank told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. “The overarching view is that China’s current stance has been too hard-line and the leadership has clearly misjudged the situation.” 

[...] 

Under Xi, officials have become increasingly confident in proclaiming what they see as China’s rightful place as a world leader, casting off a long-held maxim of Deng Xiaoping, the former paramount leader who said the country needed to “bide its time and hide its strength”.

“The Outlook Has Become Grim”: Trump Trade War Causing “Rare Cracks” Within China’s Communist Partyby Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge, Thu, 08/09/2018 

Over the weekend, Trump claimed on Twitter that the US is winning the trade war with China for one simple reason: whereas US stocks are back to all-time highs, the Chinese market has tumbled and remains mired in a bear market. Now, another - less naive - indication has emerged suggesting that the US is indeed getting the upper hand in the ongoing trade feud: according to Reuters, the trade war with the United States is “causing rifts” within China’s Communist Party, with some critics saying that China’s overly nationalistic stance “may have hardened the U.S. position.”

Two models: Building Stuff (China) or Bombing Stuff (Us)?

In this Summer Solution episode of the Keiser Report, Max and Stacy contrast the situation with China, a perhaps emerging superpower, to the United States, a possibly declining superpower. As the US grew powerful as an empire of debt, extracting resources and equity from economies colonized by their debt rather than their military armies, what happens when China begins doing the same? Lots of complaints from U.S. officials who want American lenders to take over debt markets the U.S. has overlooked in the past few decades. They look at the case of Africa where Chinese mobile phone manufacturers and tech entrepreneurs are radically altering the telecom landscape left wide open to them after the departure of Nokia. What happens when the African consumer becomes wealthy enough to transform the Chinese global power play?

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APOIE O ANTÓNIO MARIA
O acesso a este blog é gratuito, mas a sua doação, por pequena que seja, ajudar-me-à a mantê-lo e a melhorá-lo. Um euro por mês é muito? Obrigado.

Já começou a III Guerra Mundial?

The Azov Battalion uses the Nazi Wolfsangel symbol as its logo. Its founder Andriy Biletsky (center) has moved to ban “race mixing” in the Ukranian parliament. (Azov/Twitter)

Será muito diferente da Primeira, e da Segunda...

Neo-conservatives are crazy. They think they can win a nuclear war! 

 PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS. 

Israeli arms are being sent to a heavily armed neo-Nazi militia in Ukraine, The Electronic Intifada has learned. 

ASA WINSTANLEY.

Shifting monetary systems: developed to developing nations 

The World Wars of the twentieth century had spawned a US-led monetary structure that came to dominate markets and geopolitics. In 1944, self-interested financial leaders convened at Bretton Woods to craft a monetary system centered on US and European currencies and interests. While Europe rebuilt its war-torn cities, the United States capitalized on its superpower role, and developing countries were overshadowed. 

In contrast, the twenty-first century gave rise to a financial world war. Conjured money was the weapon of choice. Fabricated funds went toward subsidizing the private banking system and buying government debt, corporate debt, and stocks. By providing the grease that kept money flowing, central bankers superseded governments—that set the cost of money and provided the confidence in ongoing liquidity—the world was their battlefield. 

NOMI PRINS, Collu$ion, How Central Bankers Rigged The World, 2018.

ASEAN, China agree 'milestone' text as basis for South China Sea talks 

SINGAPORE (Reuters, August 2, 2018) - Southeast Asian nations and China have reached a “milestone” in talks with China over a code of conduct in the South China Sea with a working text that will serve as a basis for future negotiations, Singapore’s foreign minister said on Friday.

Há qualquer coisa no ar que cheira cada vez mais a desastre, e possivelmente a guerra. Mas, tal como o colapso ecológico provocado pelas alterações climáticas, não será um acontecimento súbito, único e definitivo. Virá sim por vagas, com intervalos cada vez menores, e intensidade crescente. Para todos os efeitos, podemos datar o início da III Guerra Mundial no que quer que tenha acontecido em 11 de setembro de 2001 em Nova Iorque. Trump pode muito bem ser o líder que precipitará a segunda vaga do conflito global que ditará a forma do planeta humano depois da era dos combustíveis fósseis de alta densidade—carvão, petróleo e gás natural— e depois do esgotamento de inúmeros recursos minerais, e da extinção de milhares de espécies animais e botânicas à face da Terra.

Donald Trump, ao disparar em todas as direções lançou uma grande confusão nas relações internacionais, sobretudo na Europa e no Pacífico. Em resposta a esta perigosa desorganização do status quo internacional, a União Europeia decidiu criar proteções legais face às sanções intempestivas do presidente americano contra tudo e contra todos (salvo a sionista Israel, claro). Por sua vez, a China acaba de avançar, com vários países asiáticos, e sem os Estados Unidos, para um Código de Conduta no Mar do Sul da China, num claro desafio à hegemonia imperial americana.

Recomendo, a propósito deste verão quente, os videos que se seguem e dois livros. No seu conjunto dão-nos uma panorâmica bastante detalhada da complexidade económico-financeira, social e geoestratégica resultante do sobre-endividamento de uma super-potência em declínio: os Estados Unidos da América.

Paul Craig Roberts — Deep State and MSM Will Fight to the Death Against Trump, interview by Greg Hunter, USAWatchdog.

Steve Bannon — Steve Bannon interview with Christopher Hope, The Telegraph.

Nomi Prins — All The Presidents Bankers, 2014; Collu$ion—How Central Bankers Rigged The World, 2018.

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APOIE O ANTÓNIO MARIA
O acesso a este blog é gratuito, mas a sua doação, por pequena que seja, ajudar-me-à a mantê-lo e a melhorá-lo. Um euro por mês é muito? Obrigado.

O labrego americano

A América não passa hoje de um reality show

A Rússia está em recessão demográfica e envelhecimento acelerado. Além do mais, sem vender gás à Europa, e sem os investimentos alemães e europeus, estaria frita, na sertã chinesa. Logo, o perigo de uma invasão russa é um papão ressequido sem real valor propagandístico. Quanto à NATO, já não serve para coisa nenhuma! Do que precisamos é de um sistema de defesa estratégica europeu, com tecnologia e armamento europeus. Ou será que não dá para perceber o que alguns americanos há muito querem: destruir a Europa? Não nos esqueçamos que a América se tornou uma potência hegemónica sobretudo à custa das duas guerras mundiais iniciadas na Europa (1914-18, 1939-45). Eram, antes destas duas tragédias europeias (já então postas em marcha para travar a Alemanha...), uns labregos. Voltaram a sê-lo!


Trans-Europe Express – NATO is dead
By Georgi Gotev with Freya Kirk | EURACTIV.com

NATO held its first summit in its grandiose new buildings this week. This should have suggested a new beginning for the transatlantic alliance. But the impression from the discussions was quite the reverse.

As one reporter suggested, this was a sadomasochistic extravaganza: Donald Trump first horsewhipped his allies, and then had his happy moment, suddenly declaring victory and having made NATO “much stronger”.

Criminals should be treated with more respect than the way Trump treated his colleagues. A source told your correspondent that every time the US president heard messages he didn’t like, he just ignored the speaker and even turned his back on them to speak to his own delegation.

At one point, Emmanuel Macron had to pause his speech for almost a minute, waiting for Trump to finish his private conversation and refocus on the meeting.

Outside the meeting room, to a mixture of general dismay and disbelief, Trump said the “level of spirit” had been “incredible”, declared the summit a big success, and bragged that he had been able to squeeze an additional $33-$40 billion in defence spending from his allies.

This, however, is not true. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said this money had been committed in advance, and the figures were published in a paper two days ahead of the summit.

It was, therefore, a fudge: intended for an audience that is not interested in the details, which is more or less Trump’s electoral base.

Read more

Very fake news

Presidente dos Estados Unidos: conferência de imprensa de 16 de fevereiro de 2017

Vale a pena ouvir esta conferência de imprensa do presidente dos EEUU (via CNN), do princípio ao fim, em vez de perder tanto tempo com o futebol, os crimes, a propaganda governamental desatinada e as selfies narcisistas do nosso presidente, um género de comunicação social terceiro-mundista que funciona como uma verdadeira engenharia social, de que nem os próprios agentes porventura têm plena consciência.

O estado de indigência da imprensa portuguesa é tal, que voltámos ao tempo em que para obter informação fidedigna temos que recorrer às agências informativas internacionais. Menos mal que existe a Internet!

Video e transcrição via The New York Times

Hillary vs Trump

Venha o Diabo e escolha!

(CNN) Hillary Clinton was deemed the winner of Monday night's debate by 62% of voters who tuned in to watch, while just 27% said they thought Donald Trump had the better night, according to a CNN/ORC Poll of voters who watched the debate.

Debate inconclusivo? Ouvi-o esta madrugada. Hillary pareceu, para já, melhor treinada do que Trump. Trump é fanfarrão, não paga impostos e continua a exibir um peluche em cima do crânio, Hillary é uma falcoa perigosa, propensa às pneumonias, que ajudou a meter os Estados Unidos, o Leste Europeu e o Médio Oriente num inferno. A América precisa de uma pausa para lamber as feridas, se quiser retardar ou mesmo infletir a sua manifesta decadência económica, financeira, institucional e moral. Talvez por isto ser assim, os eleitores de um grande país onde prolifera a pobreza e o crime, acabem, no fim da campanha eleitoral, por dar a vitória a Donald Trump. Quem quer que venha a ser  o próximo boss americano, sê-lo-à depois de uma vitória tangencial sobre o adversário.

Síria, uma crise fabricada

Aylan Kurdi. Ilustração @ Antimedia

Quem engendrou e quem quer lucrar com a crise dos refugiados?

O mais deprimente mesmo foi ver como o presidente da União das Misericórdias Portuguesas, e o veterano Rui Marques, e mais não sei quantos espertos da solidariedade saltaram imediatamente para a frente televisiva, cheios de ideias e compaixão pelos refugiados. Na realidade, o que estas criaturas piedosas não deixaram de ver em primeiro lugar foram os milhões de euros que a UE (9.000 euros por refugiado acolhido) e o governo português (aqui o montante não foi ainda anunciado) terão que desembolsar por causa desta crise, criada, em primeiro lugar, pelos belicistas americanos e israelitas, mas com o apoio sonâmbulo, desde o início da guerra civil na Síria, dos indigentes políticos que pusemos à frente dos destinos desta desmiolada Europa.

Não temos 308 governos municipais? Não temos 3.092 freguesias? Não temos centenas de edifícios escolares vazios, abandonados ou à venda? Não contam as nossas Forças Armadas com mais de 3.000 efetivos, boa parte dos quais em estado de prontidão operacional? Não existem várias unidades hospitalares no recém concentrado Hospital das Forças Armadas? Não sai tudo isto dos impostos que pagamos, e da sobre dívida que suportamos? Não é precisamente nestas ocasiões que o estado deve cumprir a sua missão com eficácia e brilho? Então porque é que se levantou o indecoroso circo da desgraça alheia e se escancararam os microfones aos profissionais da piedade remunerada?

A União Europeia está cercada de fogos postos pelos Estados Unidos e por Israel

A colonização americana da Europa ocidental está em pleno curso, por via da tentativa sistemática de destruição do euro, através das guerras artificiais implantadas no Iraque, Afeganistão, Líbia, Ucrânia, Síria, etc., das sanções e tensões artificiais envolvendo o Irão, África mediterrânica, África subsariana, e ainda por meio do grande abraço de urso que é a famosa Parceria Transatlântica (TTIP), de que a frota de empresas globais já desembarcadas na Europa é uma antecipação clara do que nos espera: Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's, Fitch, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft, Apple, Fox, Disney, Remax, Era, Century 21, ou a mais recente e escandalosa Uber!

Na realidade, o que está em curso é a preparação de uma nova divisão do mundo em duas metades: uma metade ocidental liderada pelos Estados Unidos, que inclui todo o continente americano, a Europa ocidental, incluindo a Finlândia, Estónia, Letónia, Lituânia, Polónia, Moldávia, Roménia e Turquia, a península da Arábia e todo o continente africano; e uma metade oriental, com vértice na China e na Rússia, e abrangendo um número indeterminado de países, de que se excluem, para já, o Japão e a Austrália...

A morte de Aylan Kurdi, que na realidade fugia do auto-proclamado Estado Islâmico (ISIS), e não de Bashar al-Assad, tal como a morte de tantos outros meninos e meninas parece, pois, um dos altos preços a pagar por um novo Tratado de Tordesilhas.

Presidente sírio acusa Ocidente de usar dois pesos e duas medidas sobre migrantes
AFP - Agence France-Presse/ Diário Pernambuco, Publicação: 17/09/2015 09:09 

Bashar Al-Assad afirmou que os países ocidentais choram pelos refugiados sírios ao mesmo tempo em que alimentam a guerra que os expulsa para o exílio

"É como se o Ocidente chorasse com um olho pelos refugiados e com o segundo mirasse neles com uma arma", declarou o chefe de Estado sírio, durante uma entrevista à imprensa russa, divulgada nesta quarta-feira.

"O Ocidente (...) apoia os terroristas desde o início da crise e (aponta a responsabilidade do que acontece) para o regime ou o presidente sírio", ressaltou em sua primeira reação à tragédia dos migrantes.

O regime de Damasco chama de "terroristas" todo os seus opositores: dissidentes políticos que escolheram a luta pacífica, rebeldes que pegaram em armas e os jihadistas, incluindo os do grupo Estado Islâmico (EI).

"Se a Europa está tão concentrada no futuro dos refugiados, deveria parar de apoiar o terrorismo", insistiu Assad. Muitos países europeus apoiam a oposição "moderada" a Assad, mas que lutam contra os jihadistas do EI.

Mais de 500 mil migrantes atravessaram as fronteiras da União Europeia entre janeiro e agosto deste ano, contra 280 mil em 2014, segundo a agência europeia Frontex.

Read This Before the Media Uses a Drowned Refugee Boy to Start Another War
Antimedia, Dan Sanchez. September 8, 2015

Warmongers in government and the media are perversely but predictably trying to conscript Aylan’s corpse into their march to escalation. They are contending that Aylan died because the West has not intervened against Syria’s dictator Bashar al-Assad, and that it must do so now to spare other children the same fate.

Um, no, Aylan’s family were Kurdish refugees from Kobani who had to flee that city when it was besieged, not by Assad, but by Assad’s enemy: ISIS.

And ISIS is running rampant in that part of Syria only because the US-led West and its regional allies have given them cover by supporting and arming the jihadist-dominated uprising against Assad.

The West has been intervening in Syria heavily since at least 2012. Indeed, it is Western intervention that has exacerbated and prolonged the conflict, which has now claimed a quarter of a million lives.

O Ocidente ainda não percebeu que deixou de ditar as regras

Chinese missiles are seen on trucks as they drive next to Tiananmen Square and the Great Hall of the People during a military parade on September 3, 2015 in Beijing, China.
(Original Photo: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images/ edited)

A guerra do gás continua a aumentar a parada belicista no Médio Oriente e no Mediterrâneo. A projeção da crise de refugiados em direção à Europa, e o colapso das exportações alimentares comunitárias para a Rússia, são o preço inicial que esta Europa desmiolada começa a pagar por causa dos idiotas que a dirigem, de cócoras para Washington.

Portugal deve tomar uma posição diplomática de distanciamento da deriva belicista euro-americana, e enveredar pela adoção imediata de uma posição de neutralidade no que começa a parecer-se cada vez mais com uma escalada bélica que pode revelar-se incontrolável.

Somos pequeninos? Somos. E por isso mesmo podemos e devemos assumir uma postura útil e pedagógica, nos antípodas das afirmações aventureiras do senhor do PS que hoje administra um banco falido chamado Banif!

Russia sends ships, aircraft and forces to Syria: U.S. officials
Reuters, Business | Wed Sep 9, 2015 11:49am EDT

Russia has sent two tank landing ships and additional aircraft to Syria in the past day or so and has deployed a small number of forces there, U.S. officials said on Wednesday, in the latest signs of a military buildup that has put Washington on edge.

The two U.S. officials, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said the intent of Russia's military moves in Syria remained unclear.

Will China Invade Alaska, Canada? Will Russia?
The theory of 65-year cycles points to a critical moment in China's evolution
Observer, By Bernie Quigley | 09/03/15 1:02pm

Because the Chinese have been studying the cycles. From generational theorists William Strauss and Neil Howe, they have learned that political/cultural cycles last only 65 years, and then they collapse, cycles first observed by Taoist monks and Roman philosophers. And China is exactly 66 years advanced since the Chinese Communist Revolution of 1949. In terms of generational cycles, China is on the eve of destruction. (In terms of the Strauss/Howe theory, so are we.)

The Chinese have been studying Western theories and economic cycles like the Elliott Wave, which suggests that the life cycle of a dominant currency has its limitations, and the American dollar cycle has ended. They have been studying economist Harry Dent, investment gurus Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and libertarian Ron Paul, seen often here only in the shadows, and understand that America is at a full economic transition, potentially a catastrophic cultural turning.

They have been reading Nicholson Baker’s day-by-day account, Human Smoke: The beginnings of WWII, the End of Civilization. They understand fully without Western sentimentality or illusion what comes next at the end of the economic cycle: Total war.

One remark to Bernie's post: you should metric the 65 years cycle, not from 1949 on, but 1960 on, which would lead China strategic calculus to 2025. That is within a decade... The explanation for this suggestion is simples: before 1960 China had to import all the oil it needed, namely from Russia, after 1960 China became a self-sufficient oil producer... until 2015, when its Daqing oil peaked, like it peaked in USA in 1973...

So before 2030, as Donella Meadows and the team that worked with her on the The Limits to Growth predicted, the entire worl will be in big trouble.

O insolvente sistema de pensões americano

Quando os reformados americanos perderem 30% ou mais das suas pensões, como será?

Estados Unidos da América: “estado social” sobrecarrega dívida pública

Ou seja, o seu financiamento já é um encargo diferido para os que ainda não nasceram.

The 2015 Untrustworthies Report——Why Social Security Could Be Bankrupt In 12 Years by David Stockman/ Contra Corner • July 31, 2015

On a cash basis, the OASDI (retirement and disability) funds spent $859 billion during 2014 but took in only $786 billion in taxes, thereby generating $73 billion in red ink. And by the trustees’ own reckoning, the OASDI funds will spew a cumulative cash deficit of $1.6 trillion during the 12-years covering 2015-2026.

So measured by the only thing that matters—-hard cash income and outgo—-the social security system has already gone bust. What’s more, even under the White House’s rosy scenario budget forecasts, general fund outlays will exceed general revenues ex-payroll taxes by $8 trillion over the next twelve years.

Este problema não é, ao contrário da demagogia eleitoral em curso, um problema português, mas uma mutação em curso nas sociedades desenvolvidas. A esperança média de vida aumentou e continua a aumentar em todo o mundo, ao mesmo tempo que o trabalho humano vem sendo substituído por hardware, software, sistemas operativos e nuvens computacionais pós-humanas nas sociedades mais desenvolvidas. Por outro lado, abundam reservas crescentes de trabalho humano barato nos continentes cujas populações são mais jovens e mais crescem em volume e velocidade: África, América Latina e Caraíbas, e uma parte significativa da Ásia.

Ou seja, por um lado, Japão, Alemanha, Itália, Áustria, Grécia, Finlândia, Bélgica, Holanda, Suíça, Canadá, Dinamarca, Espanha, Portugal, França, Suécia, Ucrânia, Reino Unido, etc., têm populações cuja idade mediana é superior a 40 anos, enquanto em toda a África a mediana oscila entre os 14 e os 30 anos.

A resposta das sociedades desenvolvidas a este problema tem sido, em geral, subsidiar o número crescente de inativos permanentes e temporários, uma vez que o emprego diminui à medida que o capital procura oportunidades de produção com menores custos laborais e de contexto, e os sistemas de poupança individual e familiar, assim como os chamados estados sociais, colapsam. Travar o endividamento público e o endividamento das empresas e das famílias torna-se, neste contexto, uma missão praticamente impossível.

Esta não é, pois, uma solução do problema, mas apenas um adiamento dos impactos mais catastróficos do mesmo.

Esta é uma perversão comum às respostas sociais que americanos e europeus têm vindo a dar à crise do emprego e do envelhecimento demográfico (clique p/ ampliar)

Why Do So Many Working Age Americans Choose Not To Enter The Workforce?
Zero Hedge, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/30/2015 20:30 -0400

You could call it the “Mystery of the Missing Worker” – why do so many people of working age chose not to enter the workforce?  Here are the numbers, as of the most recent Employment Situation report:

250 million: the total number of people of working age in the United States.
149 million: the total number of people in that population that have a job.
8 million: the number of people who want a job but do not have one.
93 million: the number of people who don’t work, and don’t want work.

To put some context around that last number, it is 30% of the entire U.S. population. 

Muito do barulho diário dedicado pelos canais mediáticos ao desemprego, à criação precária de novos postos de trabalho, e à crise do estado social —pensões, saúde e educação— confunde a população ao induzi-la na crença de que estes problemas se podem resolver no âmbito populista irresponsável do rotativismo partidário eleitoral. Não podem!

Enquanto os países desenvolvidos continuarem a envelhecer e a encolher, enquanto a sua produção de bens transacionáveis continuar a cair, enquanto as suas balanças comerciais e de capitais continuarem a deteriorar-se, nenhum dos principais problemas sociais será resolvido, e a instabilidade político-social tenderá a agravar-se dia a dia, como se tem visto nos Estados Unidos e na Europa.


REFERÊNCIAS

A idade mediana da humanidade
Clique p/ ampliar

• Antifragile (Taleb, 2012) 
• Global Median Age - Wikipedia 
• Most Rapidly Aging: Countries 
• Statistica - Natural rate of population growth by continent in 2014  
• The end of Work (Rifkin, 1995)

Grexit a caminho dos BRICS?

Halford Mackinder: “The geographical pivot of history”.
The Geographical Journal, 1904

Poderá Tsipras deitar borda fora o mandato reforçado que detém?

 “Few great failures have had more far-reaching consequences than the failure of Rome to Latinize the Greek.” Halford Mackinder, 1904.

O que está em causa em mais esta tragédia grega é a capacidade do eixo franco-alemão que acelerou a criação da zona euro —no caso da Grécia, promovendo mesmo o seu acesso fraudulento ao clube (1)—, impedir a sua derrapagem, ou mesmo uma implosão de consequências imprevisíveis.

Vale a pena ler o texto da célebre conferência dada por Halford Mackinder na Real Sociedade de Geografia inglesa, em 25 de janeiro de 1904: “The geographical pivot of history”, pois aqui podemos encontrar o paradigma estratégico que ainda hoje determina o essencial das decisões estratégicas dos principais países do mundo: Estados Unidos, Rússia, China, Reino Unido, França, etc.

A ideia central de Mackinder é que o mundo aberto e em expansão da modernidade desbravado pela expansão marítima da Europa ocidental a partir do século 15 voltaria a fechar-se no dealbar do século 20 sob o estatuto de uma cartografia de mundos finalmente conhecidos, onde, sob o ponto de vista demográfico, económico e político, as principais dinâmicas de poder continuavam (e continuam) a residir nas tensões potenciais entre a Grande Rússia e os crescentes que a rodeiam e ao mesmo tempo a separam dos mares: a Europa ocidental (de que as Américas são uma extensão), o Próximo Oriente, a Índia, a China, a Coreia e o Japão.

Curiosamente, a Grécia continua mais próxima da Rússia e dos interesses estratégicos desta, do que da União Europeia e do projeto franco-alemão do euro:

“It is probably one of the most striking coincidences of history that the seaward and the landward expansion of Europe should, in a sense, continue the ancient opposition between Roman and Greek. Few great failures have had more far-reaching consequences tan the failure of Rome to Latinize the Greek. The Teuton was civilized and Christianized by the Roman, the Slav in the main by the Greek. It is the Romano-Teuton who in later times embarked upon the ocean; it was the Graeco-Slav who rode over the steppes, conquering the Turanian. Thus the modern land-power differs from the sea-power no less in the source of its ideals than in the material conditions of its mobility.” Idem

A modernidade pós-medieval e transatlântica começa em 1415 e termina, segundo Mackinder, pouco depois do ano 1900, mas só o perceberemos provavelmente de um modo irrefutável em 2015, no rescaldo do colapso financeiro da Grécia, no meio da maior crise financeira desde 1929, seiscentos anos depois da conquista de Ceuta por Portugal — onde então reinava uma inglesa chamada Filipa de Lencastre, cuja visão estratégica viria a mudar a história do mundo sobre o qual Halford Mackinder elaborou uma notável visão geopolítica, que ainda hoje determina as ações de Putin e de Obama.

Obama Calls Merkel, Reinforces IMF Case Of Debt Haircut Zero Hedge, 07/07/2015 15:26 -0400

Readout of the President’s Call with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany

White House:

The President and German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke by phone this morning about Greece. The leaders agreed it is in everyone’s interest to reach a durable agreement that will allow Greece to resume reforms, return to growth, and achieve debt sustainability within the Eurozone. The leaders noted that their economic teams are monitoring the situation in Greece and remain in close contact.


Russia Asks Greece To Join BRICS Bank
Zero Hedge, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/11/2015 12:27 -0400

As Bloomberg reports:

Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak spoke with Greek PM Alexis Tsipras today, proposed that Greece become 6th member of New Development Bank set up by Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, a Greek govt official says in e-mail to reporters.

A Europa e os Estados Unidos vivem há décadas acima das suas possibilidades.

Nada fizeram para corrigir esta mudança estrutural das suas economias, ou por outra, fizeram, aldrabando desde meados dos anos 80 do século passado (invenção dos CDO) os livros de contabilidade e os orçamentos, expandindo para dimensões lunáticas as suas massas monetárias e responsabilidades (dívidas), incentivando o consumo conspícuo e o mais ruinoso dos keynesianismos: ligar os tesouros soberanos (i.e. os governos) à especulação financeira global, esperando que o crescimento produtivo (e não meramente contabilístico, aldrabado) regressasse. Não regressou, e o resultado são borbulhas de mentiras e corrupção que rebentam e continuarão a rebentar por toda a parte, até que uma grande explosão, seguida de implosão geral dos mercados, obrigue a um GRANDE JUBILEU DAS DÍVIDAS, onde os prejuízos não recaiam todos sobre as populações indefesas.

É nestes momentos que os equilíbrios geográficos da política vêm de novo à superfície. A crise grega deixou, já há algum tempo, de ser uma crise económica (2) e financeira, para se transformar numa crise diplomática e estratégica de primeiro plano.

Estes dois notáveis discursos no Parlamento Europeu são uma excelente metáfora do momento crítico que vivemos.

I got angry this morning at Mr Tsipras, because we need to see concrete proposals coming from him. We can only avoid a #Grexit if he takes his responsibility. Watch my speech again here
Posted by Guy Verhofstadt on Quarta-feira, 8 de Julho de 2015

NOTAS

1. ECB Tells Court Releasing Greek Swap Files Would Inflame Markets
   Bloomberg, June 14, 2012 — 1:32 PM BST
   
   June 14 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank said it can’t release files showing how Greece may have used derivatives to hide its borrowings because disclosure could still inflame the crisis threatening the future of the single currency.
   
   Bloomberg News is suing the ECB to provide the documents under European Union freedom-of-information rules. The papers may help show the role EU authorities played in allowing Greece to mask its deficit for almost a decade before the nation’s troubled finances necessitated a 240 billion-euro ($301 billion) bailout and the biggest debt restructuring in history. 
2. O que não quer dizer que a crise institucional, económica e financeira, não seja gravíssima, porque é. Um dos dos dados económicos invisíveis da incapacidade de a Grécia crescer significativamente é, tal como Portugal, a sua dependência do petróleo, que o gráfico abaixo ilustra dramaticamente. Também por aqui a sua aproximação aos BRICS trará provavelmente mudanças significativas no seu modelo de desenvolvimento.

"What Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico Have in Common"—Gail Tverberg

Pior é impossível

Economistas do PS e da coligação PSD-CDS/PP, analyze this!

A nova normalidade:

• trabalho temporário (1);
• queda nominal e real dos rendimentos do trabalho;
• regresso ao mercado de trabalho das pessoas com mais de 55 anos — única maneira de compensarem os cortes nas pensões de reforma, a destruição das taxas de juro (e consequente assalto às poupanças individuais e familiares), e a cleptocracia fiscal (confisco, subreptício ou descarado, mas cada vez mais generalizado, das poupanças e da propriedade familiar: casas, quintas e depósitos bancários!)
• desemprego e falta de emprego sistémicos sobretudo para os grupos demográficos mais jovens e qualificados;
• institucionalização da mentira estatística como propaganda dominante dos governos, instituições financeiras e partidos políticos;
• este fenómeno não é episódico, começou no Japão em 1997, alastrou aos Estados Unidos e Europa sobretudo após 2007 (episódio Lehman) e poderá  permanecer na vida das pessoas e das sociedades por mais uma, duas, ou três décadas.

Com papas (estatísticas) e bolos se enganam os tolos! 

Como já não há crentes de direita, nem de esquerda, o truque agora é atrair os eleitores com bla bla bla estatístico e programas supostamente validados por sábios que nunca acertam. O modelo da mentira estatística (acompanhado das táticas agressivas de desvalorização cambial e destruição das taxas de juro) tem sido aperfeiçoado no Japão ao longo das últimas duas décadas. Os 0,1% que dominam o mundo tentam agora confiscar toda a riqueza mundial, para o que programam já a proibição do dinheiro metálico ou de papel. Num ambiente monetário puramente virtual os bancos centrais, instrumentos privilegiados dos 0,1%, poderão, em fim, controlar os movimentos físicos e monetários de qualquer indivíduo, de qualquer empresa, de qualquer estado. Capiche?

Um amigo meu, que no ano passado deveria ter começado a receber a sua reforma, anda desde então perdido no labirinto kafkiano do nosso sistema de pensões, onde ninguém sabe nada e onde abunda a falta de sensibilidade e de profissionalismo. Onde, ao mesmo tempo, os processos se perdem e pronto, onde ninguém responde às cartas ou e-mails, e onde se protelam as pensões a quem não é obviamente deputado da nação, nem governante, ou ex-governante, nem gabiru de partido. Perdem-se —perdemos todos!— milhões de horas por ano a aturar esta execrável burocracia. Menos mal que o meu amigo tinha direito a uma pensão do Luxemburgo, dos tempos em que por lá andou a trabalhar, e que esta veio no momento devido, sem que o pensionista tivesse sequer que se preocupar em alertar os serviços luxemburgueses. Nenhuma complicação, nenhum envido de papelada, uma carta simples e simpática a comunicar o direito, o primeiro cheque, e votos de felicidade. Por cá prevalece há séculos o excesso de burocracia inútil e mal educada que, como nos tempos de Salazar, serve sobretudo para sustentar a nomenclatura sem lei que domina, e trata invariavelmente mal os seus concidadãos. No fundo, estamos bem pior, muito pior, do que o Japão, os Estados Unidos e o resto da Europa. Pior é impossível!

Desiluda-se quem pensar que isto muda com António Costa. Não muda. E como não muda, precisamos de perceber bem onde está o mal e qual é o grau de gravidade da situação.

Recomendo, a propósito da cada vez mais insistente questão demográfica, e das mentiras sistémicas em volta do crescimento e do emprego, a leitura deste artido publicado pela Zero Hedge

How Japan Became The Benchmark For America's Fraudulent "Jobs Recovery"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/16/2015 20:57 -0400

In the US the most recent unemployment rate was 5.4%, about as close to full employment as possible, and yet neither in Japan nor in the US has there been any wage improvement.

So how does one explain the paradox of a labor market that at least quantitatively has no further slack and yet where real wage growth has never been lower. Simple, and incidentally the explanation is one which Zero Hedge provided all the way back in 2010 when we charted "America's Transformation To A Part-Time Worker Society."

It turns out that in Japan the answer is the same, only when one peeks beyond the merely quantitative and into the qualitative, it is worse. Much, much worse. As the following chart shows, virtually all the job growth in Japan since the great financial crisis has been thanks to part-time jobs!

EUA: evolução recente da composição geracional do emprego

Japão: evolução dos salários nominaic e reais (1991-2015)

NOTAS

1. As empresas de trabalho temporário, em todo o mundo, são das que mais lucros têm apresentado nos últimos anos. Esta espécie de novos negreiros emprega trabalho precário, temporário, mal pago e praticamente sem direitos. Compram e vendem força de trabalho a preços de sobre-exploração, servindo as empresas do PSI 20 e o próprio estado e autarquias do país, sem que estes tenham que preocupar-se com a lei, nem com a dignidade. Assim vai a nomenclatura de consciência tranquila pelo meio do naufrágio que se aproxima.

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Rússia e China unem-se contra o belicismo americano

O presidente da França, François Hollande, se encontra com Fidel Castro em Havana.
(Foto: Alex Castro / AP Photo) Globo

A desgraça anunciada dos vassalos europeus de Washington

“...unless the dollar and with it US power collapses or Europe finds the courage to break with Washington and to pursue an independent foreign policy, saying good-bye to NATO, nuclear war is our likely future.” — Paul Craig Roberts

Se há personagem caricata na política europeia, Hollande é certamente a mais deprimente. Só depois de Obama ter anunciado o desmantelamento progressivo do cerco que há mais de meio século os Estados Unidos mantém contra Cuba é que o presidente francês, representante do estado terminal do 'socialismo' europeu, teve a brilhante iniciativa de visitar Cuba. Ou seja, a Europa continua a ser uma mão cheia de estados vassalos do falido e declinante império americano.

Entretanto, a ocorrência mais importante da semana passada foi a resposta dada pela Rússia e pela China ao expansionismo provocatório e belicista dos Estados Unidos e da sua cauda militarista, a NATO, de que faz parte uma mão cheia de estados sem espinha dorsal, a começar pela França.

Washington tem feito tudo para montar um cenário de guerra global. Russos e chineses concluíram que esta inércia belicista está a rolar a toda a velocidade, e preparam-se para o pior: uma guerra nuclear.

Quem mais sofreu e quem realmente venceu a Alemanha nazi e o Japão? 

Ao contrário do que reza a mentira americana e inglesa, foram a ex-União Soviética e a China. Hoje estes dois grandes países estão unidos numa nova aliança estratégica contra a ameaça americana, cada vez mais provocatória e belicista, e que tem arrastado na sua cauda os vassalos imbecis e sem vergonha da Europa.

Vale a pena ler a este propósito:

War Threat Rises As Economy Declines
Paul Craig Roberts, Keynote Address to the Annual Conference of the Financial West Group, New Orleans, May 7, 2015

Ex-URSS e China pagaram a mais pesada fatura da II Guerra Mundial

EXCERTOS:

Wolfowitz Doctrine:

“Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.”

...

When Russia blocked the Obama regime’s planned invasion of Syria and intended bombing of Iran, the neoconservatives realized that while they had been preoccupied with their wars in the Middle East and Africa for a decade, Putin had restored the Russian economy and military.

The first objective of the Wolfowitz doctrine–to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival–had been breached. Here was Russia telling the US “No.” The British Parliament joined in by vetoing UK participation in a US invasion of Syria. The Uni-Power status was shaken.

This redirected the attention of the neoconservatives from the Middle East to Russia. Over the previous decade Washington had invested $5 billion in financing up-and-coming politicians in Ukraine and non-governmental organizations that could be sent into the streets in protests.

When the president of Ukraine did a cost-benefit analysis of the proposed association of Ukraine with the EU, he saw that it didn’t pay and rejected it. At that point Washington called the NGOs into the streets. The neo-nazis added the violence and the government unprepared for violence collapsed.

Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt chose the new Ukrainian government and established a vassal regime in Ukraine.

...

The real reason for Quantitative Easing is to support the banks’ balance sheets. However, the official reason is to stimulate the economy and sustain economic recovery. The only sign of recovery is real GDP which shows up as positive only because the deflator is understated.

...

[o novo protecionismo, interessante...]

To restore the economy requires that offshoring be reversed and the jobs brought back to the US. This could be done by changing the way corporations are taxed. The tax rate on corporate profit could be determined by the geographic location at which corporations add value to the products that they market in the US. If the goods and services are produced offshore, the tax rate would be high. If the goods and services are produced domestically, the tax rate could be low. The tax rates could be set to offset the lower costs of producing abroad.

e...

...unless the dollar and with it US power collapses or Europe finds the courage to break with Washington and to pursue an independent foreign policy, saying good-bye to NATO, nuclear war is our likely future.

Washington’s aggression and blatant propaganda have convinced Russia and China that Washington intends war, and this realization has drawn the two countries into a strategic alliance. Russia’s May 9 Victory Day celebration of the defeat of Hitler is a historical turning point. Western governments boycotted the celebration, and the Chinese were there in their place. For the first time Chinese soldiers marched in the parade with Russian soldiers, and the president of China sat next to the president of Russia.

...

As the years have passed without Washington hearing, Russia and China have finally realized that their choice is vassalage or war. Had there been any intelligent, qualified people in the National Security Council, the State Department, or the Pentagon, Washington would have been warned away from the neocon policy of sowing distrust. But with only neocon hubris present in the government, Washington made the mistake that could be fateful for humanity.

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EUA: 22 estados falidos

Estados americanos com défices fiscais perigosos e ameaças pendentes de suspensão de pagamentos

Os PIIGS não passam de uma manobra de distração

Portugal, tal como os outros países visados pelo odioso acrónimo, chegaram à pré-bancarrota em grande medida por causa da fantasia de um crescimento virtual assente em dívidas públicas, empresariais e familiares exponenciais, políticas públicas neoneoneokeynesianas, e consumo conspícuo. Mas as grandes bolhas estão noutros lugares: Japão, Estados Unidos, Inglaterra. Não se vêm com a mesma acuidade porque os respetivos governos e bancos centrais mentem permanentemente sobre o que se passa. Olhando, porém, para a pobreza e instabilidade social crescentes nesses país compreendemos perfeitamente que o buraco negro criado —nomeadamente o Grande Buraco Negro dos Derivados Especulativos (OTC Derivatives)— poderá, a qualquer momento, empurrar o planeta para um colapso financeiro e económico bem pior do que o de 2008.

Quase metade dos estados dos EUA está oficialmente falida. E no entanto as agências de notação de crédito mantêm o país em AA+ (excellent) !!!

Via AP/ Zero Hedge:

An Associated Press analysis of statehouse finances around the country shows that at least 22 states project shortfalls for the coming fiscal year. The deficits recall recession-era anxiety about plunging tax revenue and deep cuts to education, social services and other government-funded programs.

The sheer number of states facing budget gaps prompted Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service to call the trend a sort of “early warning.”

“After all, if a state is grappling with a budget deficit now, with the economic expansion approaching its sixth anniversary, what will be its condition when the next slowdown strikes?” credit analyst Gabriel Petek wrote in a recent report.


[...]

The forces at work today are somewhat different than when the recession took hold in 2008. In some states, revenue growth has been stagnant, missing projections and making it difficult to keep pace with expanding populations and rising costs for health care and education. Other states have been hurt by a steep decline in oil prices or seen their efforts to promote growth through tax cuts fail to work as anticipated...

A majority of states have failed to climb back to their pre-recession status, in terms of tax revenue, financial reserves and employment rates, said Barb Rosewicz, who tracks the fiscal health of states for The Pew Charitable Trusts.

Alabama, for example, faces a $290 million shortfall after a voter-approved bailout expires at the end of the current fiscal year. If nothing is done, the courts will not have the staff to send jury notices, monitor juvenile delinquents, process protection orders and collect and distribute child support payments, he said.

“This is an insane proposition,” Hobson said. “The public would suffer.”

Nationally, total tax revenue coming to the states has been rising, but the pace has been slow as employment continues to lag pre-recession levels in more than half the states, according to the Pew Charitable Trusts. Pew also found that 30 states are collecting less revenue than at their peak.

The Census Bureau recently reported that total state government tax collections in fiscal year 2014, which in most states ended last June, increased 2.2 percent over the previous fiscal year. That represented the fourth consecutive overall increase, but 17 states reported declines in tax revenue from the previous fiscal year, according to the report. Alaska saw the biggest drop, of $1.7 billion.

In Illinois, lawmakers are trying to figure out how to close a $6 billion projected shortfall for the next fiscal year, due largely to the expiration of a temporary tax increase [and] in Kansas, the Republican governor and GOP-dominated Legislature now confront budget deficits after aggressive tax cutting that prompted them to reduce school funding this spring.

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O caos chegou a Baltimore, onde a indignação se juntou à pobreza

Estava escrito na BD e em Hollywood. A Europa que se cuide!

A cidade norte-americana de Baltimore acordou esta terça-feira em estado de sítio, com as ruas patrulhadas por milhares de polícias e membros da Guarda Nacional, e debaixo de um recolher obrigatório que vai limitar os movimentos dos seus mais de 600.000 habitantes durante uma semana.

O caos chegou a Baltimore, onde a indignação se juntou à pobreza - PÚBLICO

Estados Unidos sem petróleo em 2033, ou antes

Petróleo americano: reservas reconhecidas (1993-2013)
Clicar para ampliar

O fracking foi uma tentativa vã de esconder o fim do petróleo americano

Se os EUA dependessem apenas das suas reservas reconhecidas de crude (petróleo de xisto incluído), as mesmas, mantendo-se constante o consumo de 2014, durariam apenas 7 anos. Repito sete anos!

Percebe-se agora porque Washington empenha tanto dinheiro virtual em armamento e dispositivos bélicos espalhados por todas as regiões ricas em hidrocarbonetos deste planeta.

Vamos por partes

Todos os dados consultados são oficiais e estão publicados pela EIA—Energie Information Administration. Algumas das contas são da minha responsabilidade.

• Reservas reconhecidas de crude em território dos EUA: 36.500.000.000 de barris.
• Consumo anual de produtos petrolíferos em barris de crude equivalente (bce), descontados o GTL (gas-to-liquids) e os biodieseis da equação: 5.150.000.000 barris.
• Importações de crude e produtos petrolíferos em 2014: 3.365.489.000 bce.
• Exportações de crude em 2014: 126.290.000 barris.
• Saldo entre exportações e importações de crude e produtos petrolíferos: -3.239.199.000 bce (est.)
• Produção (excecional) de crude em 2014: 3.168.200.000 barris.
• Consumo de reservas próprias em 2014: 1.910.901.000 barris (est.)

Os 100 principais reservatórios de petróleo americano
Clicar para ampliar

Desta relação de dados conclui-se o seguinte:

1. sem importação de crude e produtos petrolíferos, e permanecendo constante o consumo anual registado em 2014, as reservas comprovadas de crude americano durariam apenas sete anos.
2. mantendo constantes a produção, o consumo, a exportação e as importações de 2014, as reservas comprovadas de crude esgotar-se-iam ao longo dos próximos dezanove anos, ou seja, por volta de 2033.

A gravidade deste panorama é de uma dimensão difícil de interiorizar. Tão assustadora que se torna extremamente difícil abordar o tema na praça pública. As alternativas ditas sustentáveis, baseadas nas chamadas energias renováveis, são risíveis perante a dimensão do fenómeno conhecido como Pico do Petróleo (Peak Oil). A aposta no regresso ao uso intensivo do carvão, que aliás nunca perdeu protagonismo, levada a cabo pela China, revelou-se um desastre ambiental de proporções dantescas. Resta-nos tentar mitigar estes impactos catastróficos recorrendo ao uso generalizado do gás natural. É em volta deste recurso energético relativamente abundante que a humanidade espera agora poder ganhar tempo para transitar de uma sociedade baseada no uso intensivo de energia barata para algo que ninguém consegue ainda imaginar o que seja, ou possa ser.

Entretanto, o circo macabro das guerras e das atrocidades sem nome já começou nas regiões onde as principais reservas de gás natural se situam.


POST SCRIPTUM

The downturn in US oil production?
By Kjell Aleklett. Posted on April 4, 2015

Since November the number of active drilling rigs in the USA has declined dramatically. Baker Hughes Rig Count has just reported that, in the last 6 days, a further 20 rigs have terminated their activity. Since the peak at 1,600 active rigs in November, the number has now dropped to only 802. (...)

Those of us who know that production from fracking wells declines quite rapidly have been waiting for a decline in the USA’s oil production and now the USA’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported a production decline of 36,000 barrels in the last week of March.

Atualização: 11/4/2015, 01:05 WET

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TTIP sujeito a tribunal público

Que pensam os partidos indígenas sobre o TTIP?

Bruxelles envisage l'option d'un tribunal public pour le TTIP
EurActiv, Published: 20/03/2015 - 10:18

La commissaire en charge du commerce a soutenu l’idée d’un tribunal permanent pour remplacer le mécanisme de RDIE. « J'ai déjà demandé à mon équipe de travailler là-dessus », a-t-elle annoncé lors d'une réunion avec les eurodéputés au Parlement européen, le 18 mars. « Je crois néanmoins que nous devrions pencher pour un tribunal qui va au-delà du TTIP », a-t-elle continué.

Parece que há uma comissária europeia (Cecilia Malmström) com juízo. A ideia peregrina de substituir os tribunais por arbitragens 'ad hoc' financiadas por baixo da mesa pelos interessados e envolvidos nos assaltos de soberania é uma perversão jurídica e sobretudo democrática intolerável, que os piratas de ambos os lados do Atlântico desejam (Monsanto e outra corja da mesma laia), mas que as pessoas sensatas devem rejeitar liminarmente.

O TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) é um tratado comercial que tem vindo a ser negociado entre os Estados Unidos e a União Europeia de forma nada transparente e sobre o qual há fortíssimas suspeitas de o mesmo ser um Cavalo de Tróia destinado a infetar a economia, a segurança alimentar e as democracias de ambos os lados do Atlântico. Curiosamente, um dos grandes defensores desta parceria, e que nela trabalhou enquanto foi deputado 'socialista' europeu, é o ex-comunista Vital Moreira. Muito gostaríamos de o ler sobre as matérias polémicas desta negociação.

Também gostaríamos de saber o que pensa o governo destas negociações.

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Guerra e Gás (IV)

Clicar para ampliar

A corrida dos gasodutos—afinal o petróleo desce por causa do gás!

As guerras, as sanções, as tensões, as degolações espetaculares, em suma, o Inferno que temos visto no Médio Oriente desde as guerras no Afeganistão e no Iraque marcam o início do grande conflito estratégico do século 21: a luta pelo gás natural.

Estão em causa os acessos e o fornecimento de gás natural à Europa, mas também à China, à Índia e ao Paquistão. As maiores reservas encontram-se na Rússia, Irão, Qatar, Turquemenistão, EUA, Arábia Saudita, Iraque, Venezuela, Nigéria, Argélia, em suma, nos sítios do costume.

Neste momento a Rússia compete com os projetados gasodutos Árabe e Islâmico na primazia do fornecimento à Europa — pretendendo chegar à Europa através da Turquia e da Grécia. A guerra de secessão em curso na Ucrânia é imprevisível e poderá acabar na redução drástica da passagem de gás russo por aquele país.

Por outro lado, parece que a Arábia Saudita resolveu dar uma ajudinha à estratégia de Obama e dos caniches europeus, promovendo os interesses estratégicos do Qatar/Irão, mas também de Israel do Egito e os seus próprios na corrida dos gasodutos. O jogo é perigoso, pois Putin pode recordar aos alemães o que lhes sucedeu em Estalinegrado quando intentaram conquistar a Rússia.

Saudi Oil Is Seen as Lever to Pry Russian Support From Syria’s Assad
By MARK MAZZETTI, ERIC SCHMITT and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICKFEB. The New York Times, 3, 2015

WASHINGTON — Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon his support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, using its dominance of the global oil markets at a time when the Russian government is reeling from the effects of plummeting oil prices.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have had numerous discussions over the past several months that have yet to produce a significant breakthrough, according to American and Saudi officials. It is unclear how explicitly Saudi officials have linked oil to the issue of Syria during the talks, but Saudi officials say — and they have told the United States — that they think they have some leverage over Mr. Putin because of their ability to reduce the supply of oil and possibly drive up prices.

“If oil can serve to bring peace in Syria, I don’t see how Saudi Arabia would back away from trying to reach a deal,” a Saudi diplomat said. An array of diplomatic, intelligence and political officials from the United States and the Middle East spoke on the condition of anonymity to adhere to protocols of diplomacy.

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NATO vs Rússia: alerta, fricção e risco

Preparativos para quê?

Caught On Tape - NATO Intercepts Russian Jets Over Baltic Sea

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/10/2014 17:40 -0500. Zero Hedge

In Top-Gun-esque imagery, NATO has released video of a Dutch Air-Force F-16 fighter engaging with numerous Russian planes (more than 30!) including fighter and transport aircraft, over the Baltic Sea. This was filmed this last weekend as activity, according to NATO, continues to increase.

Entretanto o Departamento do Tesouro norte-americano faz consultas para forneciemnto de kits de sobrevivência destinados aos seus funcionários destacados em missões de inspeção aos principais bancos do país. Para que efeito, pergunta-se? Reflexos das alterações climáticas, ou algo mais?

Treasury Department Seeking Survival Kits For Bank Employees
Emergency masks, solar blankets to be delivered to every major bank in the U.S.
BY: Elizabeth Harrington   
December 10, 2014 1:00 pm. The Washington Free Beacon

The Department of Treasury is seeking to order survival kits for all of its employees who oversee the federal banking system, according to a new solicitation.
The emergency supplies would be for every employee at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which conducts on-site reviews of banks throughout the country. The survival kit includes everything from water purification tablets to solar blankets.


CONSULTA A FORNECEDORES

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) is seeking survival kits for its employees with the follow contents: • Waist f anny - pack or backpack (all of the items below must fit in the fanny - pack/backpack) • 2400 - calorie food bar (minimum 5 - year shelf life) • 3 - pack 8.5 oz. water (minimum 5 - year shelf life) • 50 water purification tablets (minimum 5 - year shelf life) • Reusable solar blanket 52” x 84” • Dust mask • One - size fits all poncho with hood • 12 hr. light stick • 1 pair of latex gloves • Whistle with lanyard • 33 piece personal first aid kit: o 1 – antibiotic ointment pack o 2 – extra strength non - aspirin tablets o 2 – ibuprofen tablets o 2 – decongestant tablets o 4 – alcohol cleansing pads o 2 – antiseptic cleansing wipes (sting free) o 6 – ¾” x 3” adhesive plastic bandages o 1 0 – 3/8” x 1 ½” Junior plastic bandages o 1 – large butterfly wound closure o 1 – 1 ½” x 1 ½” patch plastic bandage o 1 – first aid guide o 1 – Carry anywhere case • 5 Wet Naps • Dynamo rechargeable lantern with AM/FM radio • Air - Aid emergency mask.

A palavra e a ação de Putin

Caça europeu e bombardeiros russo, 29-30/10/2014

A Rússia não é o Iraque

F-16 interceptam e identificam bombardeiros russos
Jornal i, 29 Out 2014 - 21:24

A agência noticiosa francesa AFP noticiou hoje que a NATO anunciou que detetou “manobras aéreas incomuns” e de “grande escala” da Rússia no espaço aéreo sobre o Oceano Atlântico e os mares Báltico, do Norte e Negro, nos últimos dois dias.

Segundo a NATO, os aparelhos russos não tinham apresentado planos de voo, não estabeleceram qualquer contacto com as autoridades de aviação civil e não corresponderam às comunicações, o que “representa um risco potencial para os voos civis”.

Em comunicado, citado pela agência noticiosa AFP, a NATO adianta que “detetou e controlou quatro grupos de aviões militares russos a realizarem manobras militares significativas no espaço aéreo europeu”, entre terça-feira e hoje.

No dia 24 de outubro Vladimir Putin fez uma importante comunicação em Sochi, que a imprensa europeia de serviço ignorou quase por completo. No dia 28 de outubro uma missão espacial destinada à estação orbital internacional explode 11s depois de o foguetão descolar de uma torre de lançamento da NASA. No dia 29 a Rússia testou com sucesso o seu novo míssil estratégico intercontinental Bulava (alcance: 10 mil Km), cujo lançamento, a profundidade submarina não revelada, teve origem num submarino nuclear da classe Borey. No mesmo dia e no dia seguinte mais de uma dúzia de aeronaves de guerra russas passearam-se pelos céus atlânticos da Europa, mostrando que o poder de projeção russa existe, está bem de saúde e é capaz de colocar a Europa de gatas em menos de doze horas. Angela Merkel, e bem, desvalorizou a histeria dos comandos da NATO sobre o assunto, afirmando que se trataram de exercício militares conhecidos e legítimos por parte de um país soberano, em território seu, ou em céus internacionais.

Submarino nuclear russo K-535 Yuriy Dolgorukiy, da classe Borey

29/10/2014: lançamento do míssil intercontinental Bulava (vídeo)

Ou seja, o tempo em que os americanos punham e dispunham do planeta como coisa sua acabou. Agora, ou há costumes e leis internacionais a respeitar, e a ONU vela pelas regras estabelecidas, ou então a Rússia deixa de ter em conta a ONU e segue mais claramente a defesa dos seus interesses, não permitindo mais coboiadas diplomáticas e provocações nas imediações das suas fronteiras: Ucrânia, Bielorússia, Afeganistão, Cazaquistão, Mongólia, Mar Cáspio, Mar de Barents, Mar de Bering, Mar da Sibéria, região de contato com o Japão, etc, dispondo-se, por outro lado, a cruzar e percorrer os espaços internacionais com o mesmo à vontade que qualquer outro país, nomeadamente os Estados Unidos, o faz.

“Pardon Us For Our Country’s Existence in the Middle of Your Military Bases” – Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s Speech at the UN

Mapa irónico sobre a hipocrisia americana e europeia ocidental

O que se passou neste mês de outubro é um aviso sério à decadente potência imperial e aos anões europeus: a Rússia tem território e energia que cheguem, aposta na cooperação global, quer ligar Lisboa a Vladisvostoque (tal como Pequim quer uma linha férrea da China à Europa, passando por Moscovo) apostando na aproximação da União Europeia à União Económica Euroasiática, defendendo os BRICS e a SCO, mas não aceita imposições, nem mais desconsiderações arrogantes, seja de quem for. A semana que passou serviu para explicar isto mesmo a quem tem andado a dormir na forma.

NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russia Air Activity in Europe
NATO Says Russian Air Activity Poses Potential Risk to Civilian Flights
in The Wall Sreet Journal

Russian military aircraft conducted aerial maneuvers around Europe this week on a scale seldom seen since the end of the Cold War, prompting NATO jets to scramble in another sign of how raw East-West relations have grown.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization said that more than two dozen Russian aircraft in four groups were intercepted and tracked on Tuesday and Wednesday, an unusually high level of activity that the alliance said could have endangered passing civilian flights.

Military jets from eight nations were scrambled to meet the Russian aircraft, which a NATO spokesman said remained in international airspace and didn’t violate NATO territory.

Putin denuncia a manha americana quando em 2002 os Estados Unidos decidiram acabar com o ABMT, para acelerar unilateralmente um sistema de defesa-ataque nuclear mais avançado —SDI—, nomeadamente usando órbitas terrestres e bases militares em terra para o lançamento de mísseis de precisão. A Rússia quer o desarmamento nuclear, mas ou há um compromisso sério nesta matéria ou o medo da destruição mútua assegurada regressará como fiel de uma nova balança do terror, cujos principais responsáveis serão os Estados Unidos e a NATO.

Vale a pena ler o discurso de Sochi, uma peça de bom senso, ao contrário da histeria securitária, do autoritarismo e do militarismo crescentes dos americanos e de uma parte dos europeus.


Discurso de Vladimir Putin, XI sessão do Clube de Valdai, Sochi, 24 outubro 2014.

Text of Vladimir Putin’s speech and a question and answer session at the final plenary meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club’s XI session in Sochi on 24 October 2014.

It was mentioned already that the club has new co-organizers this year. They include Russian non-governmental organizations, expert groups and leading universities. The idea was also raised of broadening the discussions to include not just issues related to Russia itself but also global politics and the economy.

An organization and content will bolster the club’s influence as a leading discussion and expert forum. At the same time, I hope the ‘Valdai spirit’ will remain – this free and open atmosphere and chance to express all manner of very different and frank opinions.

Let me say in this respect that I will also not let you down and will speak directly and frankly. Some of what I say might seem a bit too harsh, but if we do not speak directly and honestly about what we really think, then there is little point in even meeting in this way. It would be better in that case just to keep to diplomatic get-togethers, where no one says anything of real sense and, recalling the words of one famous diplomat, you realize that diplomats have tongues so as not to speak the truth.
 
We get together for other reasons. We get together so as to talk frankly with each other. We need to be direct and blunt today not so as to trade barbs, but so as to attempt to get to the bottom of what is actually happening in the world, try to understand why the world is becoming less safe and more unpredictable, and why the risks are increasing everywhere around us.


Today’s discussion took place under the theme: New Rules or a Game without Rules. I think that this formula accurately describes the historic turning point we have reached today and the choice we all face. There is nothing new of course in the idea that the world is changing very fast. I know this is something you have spoken about at the discussions today. It is certainly hard not to notice the dramatic transformations in global politics and the economy, public life, and in industry, information and social technologies.

Let me ask you right now to forgive me if I end up repeating what some of the discussion’s participants have already said. It’s practically impossible to avoid. You have already held detailed discussions, but I will set out my point of view. It will coincide with other participants’ views on some points and differ on others.

As we analyze today’s situation, let us not forget history’s lessons. First of all, changes in the world order – and what we are seeing today are events on this scale – have usually been accompanied by if not global war and conflict, then by chains of intensive local-level conflicts. Second, global politics is above all about economic leadership, issues of war and peace, and the humanitarian dimension, including human rights.

The world is full of contradictions today. We need to be frank in asking each other if we have a reliable safety net in place. Sadly, there is no guarantee and no certainty that the current system of global and regional security is able to protect us from upheavals. This system has become seriously weakened, fragmented and deformed. The international and regional political, economic, and cultural cooperation organizations are also going through difficult times.

Yes, many of the mechanisms we have for ensuring the world order were created quite a long time ago now, including and above all in the period immediately following World War II. Let me stress that the solidity of the system created back then rested not only on the balance of power and the rights of the victor countries, but on the fact that this system’s ‘founding fathers’ had respect for each other, did not try to put the squeeze on others, but attempted to reach agreements.

The main thing is that this system needs to develop, and despite its various shortcomings, needs to at least be capable of keeping the world’s current problems within certain limits and regulating the intensity of the natural competition between countries.

It is my conviction that we could not take this mechanism of checks and balances that we built over the last decades, sometimes with such effort and difficulty, and simply tear it apart without building anything in its place. Otherwise we would be left with no instruments other than brute force.

What we needed to do was to carry out a rational reconstruction and adapt it the new realities in the system of international relations.

But the United States, having declared itself the winner of the Cold War, saw no need for this. Instead of establishing a new balance of power, essential for maintaining order and stability, they took steps that threw the system into sharp and deep imbalance.

The Cold War ended, but it did not end with the signing of a peace treaty with clear and transparent agreements on respecting existing rules or creating new rules and standards. This created the impression that the so-called ‘victors’ in the Cold War had decided to pressure events and reshape the world to suit their own needs and interests. If the existing system of international relations, international law and the checks and balances in place got in the way of these aims, this system was declared worthless, outdated and in need of immediate demolition. 
 
Pardon the analogy, but this is the way nouveaux riches behave when they suddenly end up with a great fortune, in this case, in the shape of world leadership and domination. Instead of managing their wealth wisely, for their own benefit too of course, I think they have committed many follies.

We have entered a period of differing interpretations and deliberate silences in world politics. International law has been forced to retreat over and over by the onslaught of legal nihilism. Objectivity and justice have been sacrificed on the altar of political expediency. Arbitrary interpretations and biased assessments have replaced legal norms. At the same time, total control of the global mass media has made it possible when desired to portray white as black and black as white.

In a situation where you had domination by one country and its allies, or its satellites rather, the search for global solutions often turned into an attempt to impose their own universal recipes. This group’s ambitions grew so big that they started presenting the policies they put together in their corridors of power as the view of the entire international community. But this is not the case.

The very notion of ‘national sovereignty’ became a relative value for most countries. In essence, what was being proposed was the formula: the greater the loyalty towards the world’s sole power centre, the greater this or that ruling regime’s legitimacy.

We will have a free discussion afterwards and I will be happy to answer your questions and would also like to use my right to ask you questions. Let someone try to disprove the arguments that I just set out during the upcoming discussion.

The measures taken against those who refuse to submit are well-known and have been tried and tested many times. They include use of force, economic and propaganda pressure, meddling in domestic affairs, and appeals to a kind of ‘supra-legal’ legitimacy when they need to justify illegal intervention in this or that conflict or toppling inconvenient regimes. Of late, we have increasing evidence too that outright blackmail has been used with regard to a number of leaders. It is not for nothing that ‘big brother’ is spending billions of dollars on keeping the whole world, including its own closest allies, under surveillance.

Let’s ask ourselves, how comfortable are we with this, how safe are we, how happy living in this world, and how fair and rational has it become? Maybe, we have no real reasons to worry, argue and ask awkward questions? Maybe the United States’ exceptional position and the way they are carrying out their leadership really is a blessing for us all, and their meddling in events all around the world is bringing peace, prosperity, progress, growth and democracy, and we should maybe just relax and enjoy it all?

Let me say that this is not the case, absolutely not the case.

A unilateral diktat and imposing one’s own models produces the opposite result. Instead of settling conflicts it leads to their escalation, instead of sovereign and stable states we see the growing spread of chaos, and instead of democracy there is support for a very dubious public ranging from open neo-fascists to Islamic radicals.

Why do they support such people? They do this because they decide to use them as instruments along the way in achieving their goals but then burn their fingers and recoil. I never cease to be amazed by the way that our partners just keep stepping on the same rake, as we say here in Russia, that is to say, make the same mistake over and over.

They once sponsored Islamic extremist movements to fight the Soviet Union. Those groups got their battle experience in Afghanistan and later gave birth to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The West if not supported, at least closed its eyes, and, I would say, gave information, political and financial support to international terrorists’ invasion of Russia (we have not forgotten this) and the Central Asian region’s countries. Only after horrific terrorist attacks were committed on US soil itself did the United States wake up to the common threat of terrorism. Let me remind you that we were the first country to support the American people back then, the first to react as friends and partners to the terrible tragedy of September 11.

During my conversations with American and European leaders, I always spoke of the need to fight terrorism together, as a challenge on a global scale. We cannot resign ourselves to and accept this threat, cannot cut it into separate pieces using double standards. Our partners expressed agreement, but a little time passed and we ended up back where we started. First there was the military operation in Iraq, then in Libya, which got pushed to the brink of falling apart. Why was Libya pushed into this situation? Today it is a country in danger of breaking apart and has become a training ground for terrorists.

Only the current Egyptian leadership’s determination and wisdom saved this key Arab country from chaos and having extremists run rampant. In Syria, as in the past, the United States and its allies started directly financing and arming rebels and allowing them to fill their ranks with mercenaries from various countries. Let me ask where do these rebels get their money, arms and military specialists? Where does all this come from? How did the notorious ISIL manage to become such a powerful group, essentially a real armed force?  



As for financing sources, today, the money is coming not just from drugs, production of which has increased not just by a few percentage points but many-fold, since the international coalition forces have been present in Afghanistan. You are aware of this. The terrorists are getting money from selling oil too. Oil is produced in territory controlled by the terrorists, who sell it at dumping prices, produce it and transport it. But someone buys this oil, resells it, and makes a profit from it, not thinking about the fact that they are thus financing terrorists who could come sooner or later to their own soil and sow destruction in their own countries.

Where do they get new recruits? In Iraq, after Saddam Hussein was toppled, the state’s institutions, including the army, were left in ruins. We said back then, be very, very careful. You are driving people out into the street, and what will they do there? Don’t forget (rightfully or not) that they were in the leadership of a large regional power, and what are you now turning them into?

What was the result? Tens of thousands of soldiers, officers and former Baath Party activists were turned out into the streets and today have joined the rebels’ ranks. Perhaps this is what explains why the Islamic State group has turned out so effective? In military terms, it is acting very effectively and has some very professional people. Russia warned repeatedly about the dangers of unilateral military actions, intervening in sovereign states’ affairs, and flirting with extremists and radicals. We insisted on having the groups fighting the central Syrian government, above all the Islamic State, included on the lists of terrorist organizations. But did we see any results? We appealed in vain.

We sometimes get the impression that our colleagues and friends are constantly fighting the consequences of their own policies, throw all their effort into addressing the risks they themselves have created, and pay an ever-greater price.

Colleagues, this period of unipolar domination has convincingly demonstrated that having only one power centre does not make global processes more manageable. On the contrary, this kind of unstable construction has shown its inability to fight the real threats such as regional conflicts, terrorism, drug trafficking, religious fanaticism, chauvinism and neo-Nazism. At the same time, it has opened the road wide for inflated national pride, manipulating public opinion and letting the strong bully and suppress the weak.

Essentially, the unipolar world is simply a means of justifying dictatorship over people and countries. The unipolar world turned out too uncomfortable, heavy and unmanageable a burden even for the self-proclaimed leader. Comments along this line were made here just before and I fully agree with this. This is why we see attempts at this new historic stage to recreate a semblance of a quasi-bipolar world as a convenient model for perpetuating American leadership. It does not matter who takes the place of the centre of evil in American propaganda, the USSR’s old place as the main adversary. It could be Iran, as a country seeking to acquire nuclear technology, China, as the world’s biggest economy, or Russia, as a nuclear superpower.

Today, we are seeing new efforts to fragment the world, draw new dividing lines, put together coalitions not built for something but directed against someone, anyone, create the image of an enemy as was the case during the Cold War years, and obtain the right to this leadership, or diktat if you wish. The situation was presented this way during the Cold War. We all understand this and know this. The United States always told its allies: “We have a common enemy, a terrible foe, the centre of evil, and we are defending you, our allies, from this foe, and so we have the right to order you around, force you to sacrifice your political and economic interests and pay your share of the costs for this collective defense, but we will be the ones in charge of it all of course.” In short, we see today attempts in a new and changing world to reproduce the familiar models of global management, and all this so as to guarantee their [the US’] exceptional position and reap political and economic dividends.

But these attempts are increasingly divorced from reality and are in contradiction with the world’s diversity. Steps of this kind inevitably create confrontation and countermeasures and have the opposite effect to the hoped-for goals. We see what happens when politics rashly starts meddling in the economy and the logic of rational decisions gives way to the logic of confrontation that only hurt one’s own economic positions and interests, including national business interests.

Joint economic projects and mutual investment objectively bring countries closer together and help to smooth out current problems in relations between states. But today, the global business community faces unprecedented pressure from Western governments. What business, economic expediency and pragmatism can we speak of when we hear slogans such as “the homeland is in danger”, “the free world is under threat”, and “democracy is in jeopardy”? And so everyone needs to mobilize. That is what a real mobilization policy looks like.

Sanctions are already undermining the foundations of world trade, the WTO rules and the principle of inviolability of private property. They are dealing a blow to liberal model of globalization based on markets, freedom and competition, which, let me note, is a model that has primarily benefited precisely the Western countries. And now they risk losing trust as the leaders of globalization. We have to ask ourselves, why was this necessary? After all, the United States’ prosperity rests in large part on the trust of investors and foreign holders of dollars and US securities. This trust is clearly being undermined and signs of disappointment in the fruits of globalization are visible now in many countries.  

The well-known Cyprus precedent and the politically motivated sanctions have only strengthened the trend towards seeking to bolster economic and financial sovereignty and countries’ or their regional groups’ desire to find ways of protecting themselves from the risks of outside pressure. We already see that more and more countries are looking for ways to become less dependent on the dollar and are setting up alternative financial and payments systems and reserve currencies. I think that our American friends are quite simply cutting the branch they are sitting on. You cannot mix politics and the economy, but this is what is happening now. I have always thought and still think today that politically motivated sanctions were a mistake that will harm everyone, but I am sure that we will come back to this subject later.

We know how these decisions were taken and who was applying the pressure. But let me stress that Russia is not going to get all worked up, get offended or come begging at anyone’s door. Russia is a self-sufficient country. We will work within the foreign economic environment that has taken shape, develop domestic production and technology and act more decisively to carry out transformation. Pressure from outside, as has been the case on past occasions, will only consolidate our society, keep us alert and make us concentrate on our main development goals.

Of course the sanctions are a hindrance. They are trying to hurt us through these sanctions, block our development and push us into political, economic and cultural isolation, force us into backwardness in other words. But let me say yet again that the world is a very different place today. We have no intention of shutting ourselves off from anyone and choosing some kind of closed development road, trying to live in autarky. We are always open to dialogue, including on normalizing our economic and political relations. We are counting here on the pragmatic approach and position of business communities in the leading countries.

Some are saying today that Russia is supposedly turning its back on Europe – such words were probably spoken already here too during the discussions – and is looking for new business partners, above all in Asia. Let me say that this is absolutely not the case. Our active policy in the Asian-Pacific region began not just yesterday and not in response to sanctions, but is a policy that we have been following for a good many years now. Like many other countries, including Western countries, we saw that Asia is playing an ever greater role in the world, in the economy and in politics, and there is simply no way we can afford to overlook these developments.

Let me say again that everyone is doing this, and we will do so to, all the more so as a large part of our country is geographically in Asia. Why should we not make use of our competitive advantages in this area? It would be extremely shortsighted not to do so.

Developing economic ties with these countries and carrying out joint integration projects also creates big incentives for our domestic development. Today’s demographic, economic and cultural trends all suggest that dependence on a sole superpower will objectively decrease. This is something that European and American experts have been talking and writing about too.


Perhaps developments in global politics will mirror the developments we are seeing in the global economy, namely, intensive competition for specific niches and frequent change of leaders in specific areas. This is entirely possible.

There is no doubt that humanitarian factors such as education, science, healthcare and culture are playing a greater role in global competition. This also has a big impact on international relations, including because this ‘soft power’ resource will depend to a great extent on real achievements in developing human capital rather than on sophisticated propaganda tricks.


At the same time, the formation of a so-called polycentric world (I would also like to draw attention to this, colleagues) in and of itself does not improve stability; in fact, it is more likely to be the opposite. The goal of reaching global equilibrium is turning into a fairly difficult puzzle, an equation with many unknowns. So, what is in store for us if we choose not to live by the rules – even if they may be strict and inconvenient – but rather live without any rules at all? And that scenario is entirely possible; we cannot rule it out, given the tensions in the global situation. Many predictions can already be made, taking into account current trends, and unfortunately, they are not optimistic. If we do not create a clear system of mutual commitments and agreements, if we do not build the mechanisms for managing and resolving crisis situations, the symptoms of global anarchy will inevitably grow.


Today, we already see a sharp increase in the likelihood of a whole set of violent conflicts with either direct or indirect participation by the world’s major powers. And the risk factors include not just traditional multinational conflicts, but also the internal instability in separate states, especially when we talk about nations located at the intersections of major states’ geopolitical interests, or on the border of cultural, historical, and economic civilizational continents.

Ukraine, which I’m sure was discussed at length and which we will discuss some more, is one of the example of such sorts of conflicts that affect international power balance, and I think it will certainly not be the last. From here emanates the next real threat of destroying the current system of arms control agreements. And this dangerous process was launched by the United States of America when it unilaterally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, and then set about and continues today to actively pursue the creation of its global missile defense system.

Colleagues, friends, I want to point out that we did not start this. Once again, we are sliding into the times when, instead of the balance of interests and mutual guarantees, it is fear and the balance of mutual destruction that prevent nations from engaging in direct conflict. In absence of legal and political instruments, arms are once again becoming the focal point of the global agenda; they are used wherever and however, without any UN Security Council sanctions. And if the Security Council refuses to produce such decisions, then it is immediately declared to be an outdated and ineffective instrument.

Many states do not see any other ways of ensuring their sovereignty but to obtain their own bombs. This is extremely dangerous. We insist on continuing talks; we are not only in favor of talks, but insist on continuing talks to reduce nuclear arsenals. The less nuclear weapons we have in the world, the better. And we are ready for the most serious, concrete discussions on nuclear disarmament – but only serious discussions without any double standards.

What do I mean? Today, many types of high-precision weaponry are already close to mass-destruction weapons in terms of their capabilities, and in the event of full renunciation of nuclear weapons or radical reduction of nuclear potential, nations that are leaders in creating and producing high-precision systems will have a clear military advantage. Strategic parity will be disrupted, and this is likely to bring destabilization. The use of a so-called first global pre-emptive strike may become tempting. In short, the risks do not decrease, but intensify.

The next obvious threat is the further escalation of ethnic, religious, and social conflicts. Such conflicts are dangerous not only as such, but also because they create zones of anarchy, lawlessness, and chaos around them, places that are comfortable for terrorists and criminals, where piracy, human trafficking, and drug trafficking flourish.

Incidentally, at the time, our colleagues tried to somehow manage these processes, use regional conflicts and design ‘color revolutions’ to suit their interests, but the genie escaped the bottle. It looks like the controlled chaos theory fathers themselves do not know what to do with it; there is disarray in their ranks.

We closely follow the discussions by both the ruling elite and the expert community. It is enough to look at the headlines of the Western press over the last year. The same people are called fighters for democracy, and then Islamists; first they write about revolutions and then call them riots and upheavals. The result is obvious: the further expansion of global chaos.

Colleagues, given the global situation, it is time to start agreeing on fundamental things. This is incredibly important and necessary; this is much better than going back to our own corners. The more we all face common problems, the more we find ourselves in the same boat, so to speak. And the logical way out is in cooperation between nations, societies, in finding collective answers to increasing challenges, and in joint risk management. Granted, some of our partners, for some reason, remember this only when it suits their interests.

Practical experience shows that joint answers to challenges are not always a panacea; and we need to understand this. Moreover, in most cases, they are hard to reach; it is not easy to overcome the differences in national interests, the subjectivity of different approaches, particularly when it comes to nations with different cultural and historical traditions. But nevertheless, we have examples when, having common goals and acting based on the same criteria, together we achieved real success.

Let me remind you about solving the problem of chemical weapons in Syria, and the substantive dialogue on the Iranian nuclear program, as well as our work on North Korean issues, which also has some positive results. Why can’t we use this experience in the future to solve local and global challenges? What could be the legal, political, and economic basis for a new world order that would allow for stability and security, while encouraging healthy competition, not allowing the formation of new monopolies that hinder development? It is unlikely that someone could provide absolutely exhaustive, ready-made solutions right now. We will need extensive work with participation by a wide range of governments, global businesses, civil society, and such expert platforms as ours.

However, it is obvious that success and real results are only possible if key participants in international affairs can agree on harmonizing basic interests, on reasonable self-restraint, and set the example of positive and responsible leadership. We must clearly identify where unilateral actions end and we need to apply multilateral mechanisms, and as part of improving the effectiveness of international law, we must resolve the dilemma between the actions by international community to ensure security and human rights and the principle of national sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of any state.

Those very collisions increasingly lead to arbitrary external interference in complex internal processes, and time and again, they provoke dangerous conflicts between leading global players. The issue of maintaining sovereignty becomes almost paramount in maintaining and strengthening global stability.

Clearly, discussing the criteria for the use of external force is extremely difficult; it is practically impossible to separate it from the interests of particular nations. However, it is far more dangerous when there are no agreements that are clear to everyone, when no clear conditions are set for necessary and legal interference.

I will add that international relations must be based on international law, which itself should rest on moral principles such as justice, equality and truth. Perhaps most important is respect for one’s partners and their interests. This is an obvious formula, but simply following it could radically change the global situation.

I am certain that if there is a will, we can restore the effectiveness of the international and regional institutions system. We do not even need to build anything anew, from the scratch; this is not a “greenfield,” especially since the institutions created after World War II are quite universal and can be given modern substance, adequate to manage the current situation.

This is true of improving the work of the UN, whose central role is irreplaceable, as well as the OSCE, which, over the course of 40 years, has proven to be a necessary mechanism for ensuring security and cooperation in the Euro-Atlantic region. I must say that even now, in trying to resolve the crisis in southeast Ukraine, the OSCE is playing a very positive role.

In light of the fundamental changes in the international environment, the increase in uncontrollability and various threats, we need a new global consensus of responsible forces. It’s not about some local deals or a division of spheres of influence in the spirit of classic diplomacy, or somebody’s complete global domination. I think that we need a new version of interdependence. We should not be afraid of it. On the contrary, this is a good instrument for harmonizing positions.

This is particularly relevant given the strengthening and growth of certain regions on the planet, which process objectively requires institutionalization of such new poles, creating powerful regional organizations and developing rules for their interaction. Cooperation between these centers would seriously add to the stability of global security, policy and economy.  But in order to establish such a dialogue, we need to proceed from the assumption that all regional centers and integration projects forming around them need to have equal rights to development, so that they can complement each other and nobody can force them into conflict or opposition artificially. Such destructive actions would break down ties between states, and the states themselves would be subjected to extreme hardship, or perhaps even total destruction.

I would like to remind you of the last year’s events. We have told our American and European partners that hasty backstage decisions, for example, on Ukraine’s association with the EU, are fraught with serious risks to the economy. We didn’t even say anything about politics; we spoke only about the economy, saying that such steps, made without any prior arrangements, touch on the interests of many other nations, including Russia as Ukraine’s main trade partner, and that a wide discussion of the issues is necessary. Incidentally, in this regard, I will remind you that, for example, the talks on Russia’s accession to the WTO lasted 19 years. This was very difficult work, and a certain consensus was reached.

Why am I bringing this up? Because in implementing Ukraine’s association project, our partners would come to us with their goods and services through the back gate, so to speak, and we did not agree to this, nobody asked us about this. We had discussions on all topics related to Ukraine’s association with the EU, persistent discussions, but I want to stress that this was done in an entirely civilized manner, indicating possible problems, showing the obvious reasoning and arguments. Nobody wanted to listen to us and nobody wanted to talk. They simply told us: this is none of your business, point, end of discussion. Instead of a comprehensive but – I stress – civilized dialogue, it all came down to a government overthrow; they plunged the country into chaos, into economic and social collapse, into a civil war with enormous casualties.

Why? When I ask my colleagues why, they no longer have an answer; nobody says anything. That’s it. Everyone’s at a loss, saying it just turned out that way. Those actions should not have been encouraged – it wouldn’t have worked. After all (I already spoke about this), former Ukrainian President Yanukovych signed everything, agreed with everything. Why do it? What was the point? What is this, a civilized way of solving problems? Apparently, those who constantly throw together new ‘color revolutions’ consider themselves ‘brilliant artists’ and simply cannot stop.

I am certain that the work of integrated associations, the cooperation of regional structures, should be built on a transparent, clear basis; the Eurasian Economic Union’s formation process is a good example of such transparency. The states that are parties to this project informed their partners of their plans in advance, specifying the parameters of our association, the principles of its work, which fully correspond with the World Trade Organization rules.

I will add that we would also have welcomed the start of a concrete dialogue between the Eurasian and European Union. Incidentally, they have almost completely refused us this as well, and it is also unclear why – what is so scary about it?

And, of course, with such joint work, we would think that we need to engage in dialogue (I spoke about this many times and heard agreement from many of our western partners, at least in Europe) on the need to create a common space for economic and humanitarian cooperation stretching all the way from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean.

Colleagues, Russia made its choice. Our priorities are further improving our democratic and open economy institutions, accelerated internal development, taking into account all the positive modern trends in the world, and consolidating society based on traditional values and patriotism.

We have an integration-oriented, positive, peaceful agenda; we are working actively with our colleagues in the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS and other partners. This agenda is aimed at developing ties between governments, not dissociating. We are not planning to cobble together any blocs or get involved in an exchange of blows.

The allegations and statements that Russia is trying to establish some sort of empire, encroaching on the sovereignty of its neighbors, are groundless. Russia does not need any kind of special, exclusive place in the world – I want to emphasize this. While respecting the interests of others, we simply want for our own interests to be taken into account and for our position to be respected.


We are well aware that the world has entered an era of changes and global transformations, when we all need a particular degree of caution, the ability to avoid thoughtless steps. In the years after the Cold War, participants in global politics lost these qualities somewhat. Now, we need to remember them. Otherwise, hopes for a peaceful, stable development will be a dangerous illusion, while today’s turmoil will simply serve as a prelude to the collapse of world order.

Yes, of course, I have already said that building a more stable world order is a difficult task. We are talking about long and hard work. We were able to develop rules for interaction after World War II, and we were able to reach an agreement in Helsinki in the 1970s. Our common duty is to resolve this fundamental challenge at this new stage of development.

Thank you very much for your attention.

Transcrito no dia 2 de novemebro do blogue CLUBORLOV